Storm Babet: A multi-method assessment

In October 2023 Storm Babet brought heavy rainfall and very strong winds to the UK. It led to the UK Met Office issuing red weather warnings for rain and SEPA issuing severe flood warnings in the Scottish Highlands. The extreme rain and consequential flooding led to many impacts to transport, agriculture, schools, and the energy network.  

We investigate the event and how its likelihood and characteristics may be altered by climate change and natural variability. We use a selection of methods such as generalised extreme value (GEV) theory, atmospheric analogues, and pseudo-global warming.  

We find the likelihood of record rainfall is increasing. We show evidence that similar events are more likely during the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. There is great value in investigating one extreme event with a selection of methods to compile multiple lines of evidence, giving us increased certainty in our methods and conclusions.