Event Programme The inaugural RMetS Annual Weather and Climate Conference brings together the UK weather and climate community to showcase cutting-edge science. Taking place across 2.5 days, the event offers an extensive look at novel approaches, methodologies, and exciting applications within weather and climate science. Find out more below. Day 1, Monday 8 July 2024The first day of the conference will officially start at 13.00 but lunch and registration will start from 12.00. The day will finish with a networking drinks reception and poster session.TIME 12.00Registration and Lunch13.00Opening of the Conference and WelcomeRoom: G10Prof Liz Bentley, CEO, Royal Meteorological Society13.10Keynote Presentation: The Role of Weather and Climate in Achieving a Sustainable FutureProf David Griggs, President, Royal Meteorological Society13.40Climate in the Curriculum: Launch of a report by the National Climate Education Action Plan groupAndrew Charlton-Perez, University of Reading and Prof Liz Bentley, Royal Meteorological Society14.00Move into Parallel Sessions High Impact WeatherRoom: G10AerosolsRoom: Palmer 1.02ApplicationsRoom: Palmer 1.09 Chair: Dr Matthew PriestleyChair: Chair: Prof David Griggs14.10Warnings of Intense Convective Rainfall in the UK Brian Golding (he/him), Senior Fellow in Weather Impacts, Met OfficeCold Fog Amongst Complex TerrainZhaoxia Pu (she/her), Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of UtahDevelopment of Probabilistic Forecasts of Cumulonimbus Clouds for the Aviation IndustryAndrew Creswick (he/him), Aviation Applications Scientist, Met Office14.25A Study of the 23 October 2022 Southern England Damaging MCSKenneth Pryor (he/his), Research Meteorologist, U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR)Factors Influencing Contrail Observability in Satellite ImagesOliver Driver (he/him), PhD Student, Imperial College LondonBridging the Gap Between Weather and Climate: A Surface Transport Case StudyAlice Lake (she/her), Post-processing & Applied Climate Scientist, Met Office14.40Storm Babet: A multi-method assessment Vikki Thompson (she/her), Scientist, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) Interactions between Aerosols and Vegetation: Analysing Trends of Vapour Pressure DeficitKaren Helliesen (she/her), Student, School of Geosciences, The University of EdinburghEvaluation of UK ERA5 Sea Surface Temperature for Extreme Value AnalysisWilhelm Hodder PhD (he/him), Natural Hazards Research Engineer, EDF Energy R&D UK Centre14.55A Simple Loss Model for European WindstormsDhirendra Kumar (he/him), Research Scientist, NCAS, University of ReadingExploring the Role of Interactive Methane in Earth System Models for Climate ProjectionsFiona O'Connor (she/her), Science Fellow & Senior Lecturer, Met Office Hadley Centre & University of ExeterNorth Atlantic Atmospheric Circulation and Jet Stream Variability: Links with summer and winter temperature and precipitation in north-west Europe and the UK, and a new seasonal forecasting methodDr Ian Simpson (he/him), Post-Doctoral Research Associate in Antarctic Extreme Weather, University of Lincoln15.10Evidence of a Recent Decrease in Wintertime Nordic Seas StorminessBen Harvey (he/him), Research Scientist, National Centre for Atmospheric Science/ University of Reading Observations of Weak Liquid Water Path Response to Aerosols in Ship TracksAnna Tippett (she/her), PhD Student, Imperial College LondonCan we Now Predict Global Flash Floods up to Medium-Ranges?Fatima Pillosu (she/her), PhD Student, University of Reading and Visiting Scientist, ECMWF15.20 Excess Warming in Europe during Recent Decades: Drivers and physical processesBuwen Dong (he/him), Principal Research Fellow, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of ReadingAn Evaluation of African Atmospheric Aerosol, Precipitation, and PM2.5 in CMIP6Catherine Toolan, PhD Student, University of Reading15.35Refreshments and Networking Break Room: G10 and Group Working Rooms 1.06/1.07Room: Palmer 1.0216.15Workshop 1:Big Research Questions in Weather and Climate ScienceAndy Russell, Queen Mary University London, David Stephenson, University of Exeter,Rowan Sutton, University of Reading, NCASWorkshop 2:How can Climate and Weather Data Help with Realistic Impact ModellingJennifer Israelsson, UK Health Security AgencyDr Katie Jenkins, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change ResearchMichael Sanderson, Met Office What does the future of weather and climate research look like in the UK and Europe? From recent funding calls and the nature of the issues that face us, it seems clear that disciplinary boundaries need to be crossed and large teams are required to tackle big question. But what are these questions and how do we build successful interdisciplinary research proposals and teams? We will consider this problem in this workshop session by hearing from some examples of successful interdisciplinary research projects and working as a group to brainstorm new ideas and approaches.How do we go from hazards data to societal impacts that we can plan adaptation measures for, and how do we incorporate changes in society into our impact and risk models to achieve more realistic projections? Can this be done without risking amplifying model uncertainties and where is more research needed now to address these questions? Join our interactive session where we will explore these questions together with our invited speakers followed by roundtable discussions.17.45Poster Presentation Session 19.00Networking Drinks Reception20.00Close of Day 1 Day 2, Tuesday 9 July 2024 TIME 08.00Breakfast Workshop. An informal breakfast interactive session: Unravelling Peer Review together with two Journal Editors in ChiefRoom: Palmer 1.06 An opportunity for delegates to ask questions to Editors in Chief of Meteorological Applications and Atmospheric Science Letters and help us shape resources and support systems to advance your own peer review experience. Cristina Charlton-Perez (Meteorological Applications) and Christopher O'Reilly (Atmospheric Science Letters) and Alison Brown, RMetS09.00Conference Welcome and IntroductionsRoom: G1009.10Move into Parallel Oral Sessions ExtremesRoom: G10MesoscaleRoom: Palmer 1.02Subseasonal to SeasonalRoom: Palmer 1.09 Chair: Prof Liz BentleyChair: Prof Brian GoldingChair: Prof Amanda Maycock09.15Co-occurring British Flood-Wind Events (1980-2080) and Potential Large-Scale DriversJohn Hillier (he/him), Reader in Natural Hazard Risk, Loughborough UniversityThe Role of Diabatic Processes in the Low-Level Dynamics of Arctic Summer Cyclones: Insights from field campaign data and model simulationsAmbrogio Volonté, Senior Research Fellow, University of Reading/NCAS Improved Subseasonal Prediction of South Asian Monsoon Rainfall using Data-Driven Forecasts of Oscillatory ModesEviatar Bach, Lecturer in Mathematics of Environmental Data Science, University of Reading 09.30Increasing Awareness and Preparedness for Extreme Fire Weather and BehaviourGeorgios Papavasileiou (he/him), Postdoctoral Researcher, Institute for Environmental Research & Sustainable Development, National Observatory of AthensClimatology of Upper-Tropospheric / Lower Stratospheric Turbulence from Aircraft Measurements of Eddy Dissipation RateThorsten Kaluza (he/him), Postdoctoral Researcher, Department of Meteorology, University of ReadingThe Upper Stratosphere: Is it time to pay attention?Lizzie Collingwood (she/her), PhD Student, British Antarctic Survey, University of Southampton, Met Office09.45Divergent Trends in Meteorological and Agricultural Drought over the 21st CenturyEmily Black, Professor of Terrestrial Processes and Climate, University of Reading and the National Centre for Atmospheric ScienceAssessing the Costs and Benefits of Global and Very Large Domain Convection Permitting NWP ModelsRichard W Jones (he/him), Senior Scientist, Met OfficeThe ECMWF SEAS5 Seasonal Forecast of the Hot and Dry European Summer of 2022Matt Patterson (he/him), Postdoctoral Research Assistant, University of Reading 10.00Mediterranean Wildfires and its Association with Compound Droughts, Atmospheric Heatwaves and Adjacent Marine HeatwavesRaquel Santos (she/her), Research Fellow, Portuguese Institute for Sea and AtmosphereEvaluating the Characteristics of Trapped Lee Waves in a High-Resolution Forecast Model using Satellite ImageryHette Houtman (he/him), PhD Student, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading Signal-to-Noise Errors in Early Winter Euro-Atlantic Predictions Caused by Weak ENSO Teleconnections and Pervasive North Atlantic Jet BiasesChristopher H. O'Reilly (he/him), Royal Society University Research Fellow, University of Reading10.15Heat Stress Calculations within Urban Street Canyons Using Weather and Climate Model VariablesJon Shonk (he/him), Senior Scientist, Met OfficeA Global Climatology of Sting Jet CyclonesSuzanne Gray (she/her), Professor of Meteorology, University of ReadingDiversity of Stratospheric Error Growth across Subseasonal Prediction SystemsRobert W. Lee (he/him), Research Scientist, University of Reading10.30 Dependence of Across-Jet Latent Heating on Spatio-Temporal FilteringHenrik Auestad, PhD Student, University of OxfordUnderstanding the Predictability of the Winter North Atlantic Oscillation using Dynamical Seasonal Forecast Models and Machine Learning TechniquesLaura Baker, Senior Research Scientist, University of Reading/ NCAS10.45Networking Refreshment Break Room: Palmer 1.09Room: Palmer 1.02Room: G1011.30Workshop 4:AI and Machine LearningDr Isla Finney, Lake Street Consulting LtdGabriel Moldovan, ECMWF, Joey Smith, University of Leeds, Theo McCaie, Met OfficeWorkshop 5:Science with ImpactProf Amanda Maycock, University of Leeds, Tamsin Edwards, King's College London, Ayesha Tandon, Carbon BriefDr Matt Priestley, University of ExeterProf Emily Black, NCAS/Reading Workshop 6:Extreme Event Attribution: Has it succussed in its remit?Prof Dann Mitchell, University of BristolProf Myles Allen, University of Oxford, Dr Eunice Lo, University of Bristol, Dr Miriam Zachariah, The Grantham Institute for Climate Change - Faculty of Natural Sciences AI and Machine Learning is a new and rapidly developing branch of weather and climate forecasting. This session aims to balance being accessible without prior knowledge, and enabling meaningful discussion about how AI/ML evolves.An overview talk framed around ECMWF’s AI progress to date and future plans will set the scene. Our second talk is about a practical application of AI, demonstrating some of its strengths.The panel will discuss expectations and challenges as AI/ML evolves, including what opportunities exist for AI/ML and physics to work together to tackle forecasting in a changing climate. And last, but definitely not least, the floor will be open to audience questions.It is increasingly important to consider and be able to evidence the impact of scientific research. But who are we trying to impact and in what ways? Does a focus on research impact mean moving away from fundamental research? We will be joined by a panel with diverse experience of communicating and translating research to discuss these questions and engage the audience to consider the impact of their own work.Extreme event attribution was developed around 20 years ago, as a way of determining how anthropogenic climate change may have altered the characteristics of various observed extreme weather events. This type of attribution science has always had a number of potential uses, from fundamental science advances, to increasing the evidence base for climate action, to science communication, to use in a legal setting to indicate societal impacts. In this session we explore the state of art in these topics, and whether or not extreme attribution has achieved it’s aims. We will have three talks from experts in these areas; Myles Allen, Miriam Zachariah, and Eunice Lo, followed by an interactive panel discussion with questions from the chair and audience.13.00Lunch 14.15Keynote Presentation: AI for the Future of Weather Forecasting Prof Penny Endersby, Chief Executive, Met Office14.45Keynote Presentation: AI in predicting long-term sea level riseProf Tamsin Edwards, Professor in Climate Change, King's College London15.15Refreshments and Networking Climate ServicesRoom: G10Modelling and ObservationsRoom: Palmer 1.09ConvectionRoom: Palmer 1.02 Chair: Prof David BrayshawChair: Tim BanyardChair: Bria Grange16.00A Climate Resilient Electric Power Grid is both Imperative and Possible: Preliminary Evidence from the British Onshore Wind Energy SystemKevin F. Forbes PhD (he/him), Founder, Energy and Environmental Data SciencePrecipitation in the Arctic and Southern Ocean: New insights from aircraft and ship-borne measurementsLarry Ger Aragon (he/him), Joint PhD Student, University of Melbourne, University of ManchesterWhat Influences the Maintenance of Convection Across the English Channel?David L.A Flack (he/him), Scientist, Met Office, Exeter16.15A Prototype Tool to Generate Meteorological Ensembles from Climate ScenariosNicholas G. Heavens (he/him), Climate Modeller, CGGLong-term Evaluation of Turbulence Parameterisations using Doppler LidarDr Natalie Harvey, (she/her), Senior Research Scientist, University of ReadingThe Wessex Convection Experiment (WesCon)Humphrey Lean (he/him), Manager, Urban-Scale Modelling Research, Met Office16.30Climate Services for Finance, Lessons Learned and Feedback from the Private SectorSally Woodhouse (she/her), Climate Scientist, Climate XInvestigating Observations of Upper Tropospheric HumidityThea Stevens (she/her), PhD Student, University of Reading How Does the Lifetime of Detrained Cirrus from Deep Convection Impact the Cloud Radiative Effect of the Tropics?George Horner (he/him), PhD Student, Department of Physics, Imperial College London16.45Decadal Predictability of Surface Variables over Europe and Relevance for the Energy SectorBen Hutchins (he/him), PhD Student, University of Reading, Department of MeteorologyStudying the Influence of projected Arctic sea-ice loss under 2°C global warming with very large-ensemble climate simulationsKunhui Ye (he/him), Marie Curie Fellow, Department of Physics, The University of Oxford How Long Would it Take to Remove all of an Extratropical Cyclone's Initial Moisture via Precipitation?Professor Helen Dacre (she/her), Professor, University of Reading17.00Forced Changes and Internal Variability in Projections of European StorminessMatthew Priestley (he/him), Research Fellow, University of ExeterCauses of Large Climate Model Spread in Equatorial Pacific Cloud FeedbackPeter Hill (he/him), Postdoctoral Researcher, University of ReadingIntense Tropical Cyclones; How are they Represented in a Future Climate? Exploring tropical cyclones in the South-West Indian Ocean with km-scale climate simulationsJoshua Macholl (he/him), High Resolution Climate Modelling Scientist, Met Office and University of Reading17.15Co-Developing a Climate-Driven Meningitis Early Warning System for AfricaLinda Hirons (she/her), Senior Research Scientist, NCAS (National Centre for Atmospheric Science), University of ReadingEmbedding Machine-Learnt Sub-Grid Variability Improves Climate Model BiasesJames Briant, PhD Student, Department of Statistical Science, UCLThe Role of Midlatitude Dry Air During the Withdrawal of the Indian Summer MonsoonDr Akshay Deoras (he/him), Research Scientist, National Centre for Atmospheric Science and the Department of Meteorology, University of Reading17.30Conference BBQ and Drinks in the Palmers Building 19.30Close of Day 2 Day 3, Wednesday 10 July 2024 TIME 09.00Conference Welcome Day 3Room: G1009.05Royal Meteorological Society Mason Gold Medal LectureForecasting Summer ThunderstormsBrian Golding (he/him), Senior Fellow in Weather Impacts, Met Office09.55Keynote Presentation: Equity, Diversity, and Inclusion: Is it relevant to weather and climate science?Regan Mudhar (they/them), PhD Researcher, University of Exeter10.15Poster Presentation Session10.45Refreshments available Room: Palmer 1.02Room: Palmer 1.05 Room: G1011.30Workshop 7:What’s Climate Change doing to our Weather?Prof Hayley Fowler, Newcastle UniversityProf Tim Woollings, University of OxfordProf Paul Davies, Met Office Robert Varley, Vice President, RMetSWorkshop 8:Rethinking Extreme Weather for Energy Systems of the FutureProf David Brayshaw (University of Reading)Dr Hannah Bloomfield (University of Newcastle)Dr Paula Gonzalez (Met Office)Dr Hazel Thornton (Met Office)Ben Hutchins (University of Reading)Matthew Wright (University of Oxford)Will Hodder (EDF)Rebecca Knight (National Grid ESO)Ben Sloman (National Grid ESO)Workshop 9:Panel Discussion: Climate Change Adaptation - How can we support decision-making at the local scale?Emma Dyer, Met OfficeDr Erik Mackie, Cambridge ZeroDr Beena Balan Sarojini, University of OxfordProf Jason Lowe, Met OfficeJamie Fountain, East of England Ambulance, Cambridgeshire & Peterborough Local Resilience ForumJiashu Zhu, University of Cambridge Recent UK rainfall and temperature extremes have raised concerns that our climate may be showing a greater incidence of ‘static’ circulation patterns, leading to extended periods of similar weather type. Decision-makers are asking whether global heating has changed these weather patterns, leading to more frequent extremes. This workshop will open up the conversation and stimulate new research, drawing on the diverse perspectives of attendees. What is the science telling us? What questions remain to be answered? Does this topic deserve greater attention? What more should be done to inform risk planning and provide reliable advice to decision-makers?Energy systems around the world are undergoing rapid and far-reaching change. From the growing use of weather-sensitive renewables and changes in demand patterns to the increasing exposure of key infrastructure assets, the need for meteorological information to manage weather and climate risk has never been greater. No-where is this more obvious than in being able to accurately characterising ‘extreme weather’ events. Through hands-on ‘case study’ activities, this workshop will discuss some of the scientific challenges associated with producing high-quality actionable climate information for energy system operations and planning. Working with others from both the energy- and climate- communities, participants will rethink new ways to address these challenges using research emerging from the meteorological community, asking the question: how can meteorological science better support the transition to a low-carbon energy future?What information do decision-makers need to adapt to climate change at the local level? Are lessons being learnt from previous extreme events? Can information at the seasonal to decadal scale be used to support adaptation decision-making? Join us to hear from panellists from the University of Cambridge, the University of Oxford, the Met Office and Cambridge and Peterborough Local Resilience Forum. 13.00Lunch and Networking Final Plenary Oral Session14.15The UK Climate Science Partnership (UKNCSP): Progress and PlansProf Catherine Senior, Principal Fellow Path to High Resolution, Met Office Hadley Centre 14.30State of the UK Climate 2023Mike Kendon, Climate Information Scientist, Met Office, National Climate Information Centre (NCIC)14.45Using High Resolution Climate Models to Understand Weather-Driven Stress to the UK Power SystemDr Hannah Bloomfield (she/her), Research Fellow, Newcastle University15.00TORRO Damage Site Investigation Following the Jersey Tornado of 1 – 2 November 2023 during Storm CiaránSarah Horton (she/her), TORRO Volunteer Site Investigator, Tornado and Storm Research Organisation (TORRO)15.15AI Weather Forecasts from an Operational Forecasting PerspectiveDr Isla Finney (she/her), Director, Lake Street Consulting Ltd15.30Panel Discussion15.55Conference Conclusions16.00Close of Conference*Please note this programme is subject to change