Evidence of a Recent Decrease in Wintertime Nordic Seas Storminess

Oral Presentation

The Arctic has warmed rapidly over recent decades, at a rate four times the global average. As well as influencing the local physical climate, the polar-amplified pattern of warming has reduced the north-south gradient of atmospheric temperature in the sub-Arctic regions. Here we examine the extent to which the reduced temperature gradients are associated with a local reduction in storminess, with a focus on the Nordic Seas region which has exhibited a particularly strong rate of warming. We show, using both the ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis and direct in-situ station observations, that wintertime Nordic Seas storminess has indeed reduced over recent decades, and that the decadally-smoothed timeseries is currently at its lowest value in the observed record. Taken together with robust model projections for a future reduction of storminess in this region, these results highlight the need to closely monitor ongoing changes in atmospheric circulation in and around the Arctic.